Objective To establish a mathematical model for fracture suture load relationship of C1 _1, C2 _1, C3_1 type distal radius fractures fixed by the splint with different pad thicknesses by using static analysis, design of experiment (DOE) and cuckoo-support vector machine prediction. Methods The shape of each tissue in the forearm was obtained from CT images, the corresponding solid models were established, and the modeling was achieved by noise reduction, assembly processes. The mechanical situation of bone tissues under one condition was obtained by applying load to the model according to load data measured by the Workbench. Then through the DOE method, the mechanical conditions of bone tissues under various conditions of the applied load were simulated. Finally, the mathematical models for various fracture types were obtained by cuckoo search-support vector regression (CS-SVR) prediction. Results The load was applied to the fixed position of 12 pressure pads divided by the B surface, and 460 samples were solved in DOE module in Workbench by the DOE method, and 400 of the 460 samples were randomly selected as the training set to obtain the mathematical model. The remaining 60 samples were used as the test set for comparison with prediction result of the mathematical model. The high precision mathematical models for different loads on the fixed position of the splint and the load at fracture suture could be established. The highest prediction accuracy of the model was 99. 659% , and the lowest was 95. 653% . From the accuracy analysis, there was a fuzzy mathematical relationship between the pad load and fracture suture load, indicating that the support vector machine prediction model was effective. Conclusions The study on the effect of pressure splint fixation mode and pressure splint stress on fracture suture is beneficial for the combination of traditional fixation splint and modern science and technology, and it can provide references for the selection of fixators and the design of external fixation devices in clinical treatment of distal radius fractures.